Research Roundup
Update on Spring Slide Indicators
About half of the 10 indicators are waving a red flag, while four are yellow for caution, and only one is green. On balance the indicators point to a significant risk of a repeat of the spring slide this year.
—Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist, LPL Financial
From Style Box to Global Unconstrained
PIMCO sees greater potential benefit to global portfolios in strategies that are unconstrained by a benchmark, and with managers who think about absolute return at least as much as they think about relative return.
—Andrew F. Pyne, senior vice president, emerging markets equity product manager
End Notes From a Busy Week
Stock prices fell for the week in reaction to a weak employment report and worries over upcoming weekend elections in Greece and France.
—Eagle Asset Management
Legislation and Weather Twin Effects on Business Forecasts
The much warmer-than-usual weather in the first three months of 2012 likely pulled forward some consumer spending into the winter months from the spring months, artificially boosting consumer spending, which grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in the first quarter.
—John Canally, Economist for LPL Financial
New Weekly Jobs Claims Flat
The four week average of new claims filed over the past four weeks fell by 5,250 to 379,000. This four-week moving average is generally considered a more accurate barometer of the labor market because it reduces seasonal volatility in the weekly data.
—ING Investment Management
Going Global Can Pay Dividends
With so many investors piling in, have dividends become a “crowded trade” and an “unsafe bet?"
-Brad Kinkelaar, executive vice president and global equity portfolio manager, PIMCO
-Cliff Remily, executive vice president and global equity portfolio manager, PIMCO
-Raji Manasseh, senior vice president and dividend strategies product manager, PIMCO
Analysis: Stock Market Slowdown
What is the cause of the slowdown? For many weeks, we have expressed concern about U.S. government policy decisions which at times appear to cast entrepreneurs and business firms as greedy villains, frequently as targets for higher taxes.
-Dr. Frank James, founder, James Investment Research
Stocks Down Thanks to Lousy Jobs Reports
The bad news only got worse when the Labor Department, using a different methodology, announced an increase of only 115,000 jobs, substantially below expectations, and the lowest monthly increase since October.
-Matt Freund, senior vice president, investment portfolio management, USAA
Turbid Waters
This choppiness in economic data might create value opportunities in the long-term.
-Jeff Coons, director of research, Manning & Napier
April Market, Earnings Season Offer Mixed Economic Outlook
At this point, 84% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported their earnings with 71% beating earnings estimates and 57% beating sales estimates–a very positive earnings season overall.
—Natalie Trunow, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Calvert Investment Management, Inc.
